10/31/2007 14h51

Trust in industry is the highest since 1995

Gazeta Mercantil –10/31/2007

The Industry Trust Index (ICI) of the FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Getúlio Vargas Foundation) increased 0.7% between September and October, 2007 (from 122.6 to 123.4 points), breaking a new record in the historical series started in April/1995. With the seasonal adjustment, the ICI of 122.0 points is the second highest of the historical series, only surpassed by the last July's, 123.4. According to the registered results, the processing industry is going to support, in the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2007, the good performance of the two previous quarters. Between September and October, the Current Situation Index (ISA) has moved up from 126.5 to 130.7 points, the highest level of the historical series. With the seasonal adjustment, the ISA of 127.1 points is the second highest, immediately below the last July's 129.7 points. The Expectation Index (IE) decreased from 118.6 to 116.0 points between September and October. In the series with seasonal adjustment, it remained stable in 117.0 points, only inferior to the 119.2-point index registered in July/2004. Among the elements that form the current trust index, the greatest advance in the last 12 months occurred in the evaluation made by the companies regarding the situation of the businesses. Between October/2006 and October/2007, the percentage of companies that evaluated the current businesses' situation as good, doubled from 21% to 42%; and the percentage of companies that evaluated it as weak reduced from 11% to 5%. The greatest evolution of the Expectation Index occurred in the forecasts related to production: from the 1095 companies consulted, 43% expect to produce more in next three months and 11%, to produce less. In October/2006, those figures were 36% and 20%, respectively.