Optimistic scenario for agriculture in the next five years
Gazeta Mercantil - 12/12/2007
If it is up to the projections for the countryside, farmers and cattle breeders alone will only have reasons to celebrate in the next five years. The estimates from RC Consultores point to average growth rates of 4.5% a year with the producers of meats having a higher increase in 2008 and 2009. The performance is better than the five previous years, when there was even a negative rate. "The international scenario is favorable for the sector", evaluates Fabio Silveira, economist from RC Consultores. According to him, the perspective of the use of grains for the production of biodiesel has raised the prices of the agricultural commodities, which may continue at levels that are superior to the historical levels, and the growth of the consumption of protein, mainly in developing countries, are the essential factors for this optimism. "There is a favorable combination of market and external factors, allied to the high competitiveness and, in the case of the pig farming, a potential of grazing areas", he affirms. According to the estimates of the consulting, the growth rate between 2008 and 2012 is only behind the rate registered this year: 5.5%. However, it is well above the five previous years, when it had even registered a 0.9% fall. According to the projections of the RC Consultores, agriculture will grow in the next years stimulated by the prices of the grains. This way, there will both be an increase in area and in productivity - despite his saying that he was conservative. The estimates of the company point to a production of 140 million tons of grains in 2008, achieving 180 million in 2012. The panorama for agriculture also shows surprising numbers for maize - pushed by the use of the grain in the United States for the production of ethanol. Whereas the soy crop may go from 58 million tons to 80 million, maize crop may go from 54 million to 70 million, in the same comparison. For this reason, according to Silveira's projections, in 2012 the Country will have doubled its maize exportation, from 10 million tons to 20 million tons. More than the average rate of the world exportations that, according to the economist, may grow at the same rhythm of the increase of the projected production for the period. The higher levels of the prices of grains will also raise the revenues of the sector. The consulting points to revenues of R$ 150 billion (US$ 84.3 billion) next year, in comparison with the R$ 123 billion (US$ 69.1 billion) projected for 2007. According to the numbers from RC Consultores, the growth between 2008 and 2012 may be highest of the last five years, and it may keep stable rates. This year, the projection is 4%, however, it reached mere 0.8% in 2005.